WIB of Tulare County

2010 Graduation Season

Every June brings with it graduation season, which also brings a new wave of participants in the workforce.  Whether graduating from high school, community college, university, or vocational school, there will be many people eager to apply their knowledge and training towards a new (or renewed) career.  Though recent job figures have shown a very small degree of improvement, entering the workforce at a time when unemployment rates are the highest since the Great Depression can be a very distressing experience.

To paraphrase Thomas Jefferson, those who qualify themselves well for their calling will never fail of employment in it.  More recently, experts ranging from Robert Reich to Peter Drucker – who coined the term “knowledge worker” – have advocated for decades that knowledge, education, and training are the map and compass leading to career success. 

Though we wish these notions could be entirely true in all economic times, we know from recent experience there are no guarantees.  Economic realities have shown that even the most well-trained, competitively-skilled workers can be placed into the ranks of the unemployed, sometimes for brief periods, sometimes for much longer.  But even in the toughest economic times, in the most competitive of job markets, those who prepared themselves well have the best chance of success.

Decades ago, the idea of getting a job in the local mill or manufacturing plant, and keeping that job until retirement, was common and realistic.  Today, however, its estimated people will not only change jobs, but completely change their careers, many times over.  Our economy, whether in good or bad times, is changing faster than ever before. The best way to be able to adapt to that change is to prepare ourselves well – by continually learning and applying new skills.

As a part of that ability to adapt, it’s important to understand that different jobs are in demand at different times, and being willing to adapt to new career opportunities is a trait that will serve jobseekers well.  The Workforce Investment Board of Tulare County has current economic and employment data available, including salary projections and educational requirements,  to help jobseekers determine current and future “in demand” jobs.

The WIB is dedicated to improving the existing workforce as a means to reduce poverty, support economic development, and increase family incomes – in short, preparing the county workforce for success.  From getting input from the private sector their workforce needs, to collaborating with community colleges, adult schools, non-profit training providers, and school districts, to developing clearly defined career pathways for youth and adults, to creating and implementing work readiness standards for all clients, the WIB will continue to utilize all available resources to prepare our workforce for success.

Little-Known Facts About the Unemployment Numbers

The January unemployment numbers will be released very soon, and if the unemployment rate goes down, it might not be all good news.  Conversely, if unemployment were to go up, it may point to a little more optimism in the workforce.  It’s important to look deeper into the numbers to get a clearer picture, and to understand how unemployment numbers are figured.   It also helps to know why “seasonally adjusted” unemployment figures are more useful than “raw” data.

The reality is unemployment in California and the nation is measured by a very strict definition: all workers who are available to work, currently unemployed, and who have looked for work in the last 30 days.  So anyone who may be out of work for more than a month and hasn’t looked for work in the 4 weeks prior to the survey isn’t counted.  These people are called “discouraged workers,” meaning they most likely have given up on the job search, at least temporarily.

That is why the County’s unemployment rate can go down even when the number of unemployed workers, as they are counted by the state and federal government, goes down, too.  It means more people have ended their job search, so they’re not counted anymore for statistical purposes.

That is also why, if unemployment were to go up, it could mean that more workers are starting to view the job market as more favorable, and therefore are starting to look for work again.  If more long-term unemployed people are renewing their job searches, it then raises the unemployment rate.

Accuracy in counting discouraged workers is difficult to achieve, but the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) has estimates for this definition of unemployment at the state and national level.  DOL believes this number to be relatively small compared to the larger unemployment number, but that may not be accurate today, given the number of long-term unemployed and the current job market.

In addition, DOL measures “marginally attached workers,” referring to long-term unemployed who have looked for work in the last year, but not in the last month.  They estimate this number to be significantly larger than the discouraged worker category.

Actually, there are several definitions for unemployment, or “labor underutilization,” as the DOL likes to call it:

· U-1 – is persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force, who have looked for work in the previous 4 weeks;

· U-2 – is persons laid off and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force, who have looked for work in the last month;

· U-3 – is the total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate);

· U-4 – is the total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force;

· U-5 – is the total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force; and

· U-6 – total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons – meaning they would like to work more hours, but don’t have the opportunity to  – as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

At the state and national level, using these definitions significantly increases the “unemployment” number.  On average, the U-6 measurement adds roughly 3/4ths to the unemployment rate.  The December, 2009 unemployment rate was 17.5%. 

So using the U-6 definition of unemployment in Tulare County – unemployed, discouraged workers, marginally attached workers, and underemployed – gives us a rough estimate of 30-31% unemployed and underemployed.  Translated, that means more than 50,000 people in the County can’t find work, whether they’ve been looking or not, or are working less than they would like.

People who track unemployment numbers often see that seasonally adjusted data is different from the non-seasonally adjusted numbers.  The reason why economists and statisticians place importance on this calculation is because it balances out the information from year to year, which is a much better gauge of employment trends than measuring month-to-month.

For example, we all know that retail businesses add jobs during December, so measuring jobs from November to December is always going to show an increase in jobs.  But, if we look at the November-December trend from year to year, we can see if businesses may have added more jobs in one year relative to other years. 

Using this method, we can see that Tulare County retailers actually added fewer jobs in 2009 than they had in previous years.  Not really good news, but we know 2009 was rough year for businesses and jobseekers. 

The WIB is confident that 2010 will be a better year, though not much.  The recovery will be long and slow, but using our ARRA funding, we can help those unemployed to use this time to broaden their job skills.  When the economy is ready to rebound, Tulare County will have a ready workforce.